INDOAMERICAN RELATIONS DURING DONALD TRUMP ERA IMPLICATIONS FOR PAKISTAN

http://dx.doi.org/10.31703/gpr.2024(IX-III).02      10.31703/gpr.2024(IX-III).02      Published : Sep 2024
Authored by : Maryam Shahbaz , Ghulam Mustafa , Bilal Bin Liaqat

02 Pages : 9-20

    Abstrict

    The Indo-American relations during the Donald Trump era undertook a noteworthy transformation, from January 20, 2017, to January 20, 2021. Major components of the relationship between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and American President Donald Trump and the implications of their relationship for Pakistan are stated in this research. Throughout Trump's Presidency, there was a fusion of worries and strategic collaborations in Indo-US relations. The American administration recognized and admitted India as a vital player in the Indo-Pacific region to counterbalance China's rising influence there. This was mirrored in the "2+2" dialogues and the "Howdy Modi" event as these events indicated the firming of economic, military, and political assistance. The extending Indo-American cooperation carried serious implications for Pakistan's traditional alliance with the United States. The United States forced Pakistan to address subjects like terrorism and stability of the region and this pressure stressed bilateral ties.

    Keywords

    Trump Presidency, Indo-US Nexus, Pakistan, 2+2 Dialogue, Howdy Modi

    Introduction

    The bilateral relationship between America and India got strengthened and this strengthening circles around the concern both the countries shared in countering China’s rising influence in the Indo-Pacific region. This arrangement has become prominent in defense and security matters, manifested by partnerships and agreements under the leadership of Narendra Modi and Donald Trump. The history of Indo-American relations has transformed from historical disbelief to a closer partnership in the past 15 years. This transformation was catalyzed by the 2005 agreement to cooperate on civil nuclear energy, leading to the landmark India-US civil nuclear cooperation agreement in 2008 (Oksana, 2023). The Indo-American relations during the Trump era marked a vital phase in the political landscape, categorized by a difficult interplay of strategic arrangements, and economic concerns. The presidency of Donald J. Trump, spanning from 2017 to 2021, brought forth both challenges and opportunities in the Indo-US relationship, which held extensive implications for neighboring countries such as Pakistan. As the two largest democracies on the global stage, India and America routed through a series of policy shifts, agreements, and disagreements, shaping the regional balance of power in South Asia and beyond. Against this backdrop, Pakistan found itself in a position where its strategic and security interests were closely entangled with the evolving dynamics between these two influential nations. The Trump administration showed aggression towards many of Obama's foreign policies. Although Trump wasn't unfriendly towards India, he was more hostile on issues like market access, trade, and H1-B visas. He was also openly unsympathetic to Iran, which affected relations with India due to their ties with Iran. However, key officials like Defense Secretary James Mattis and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson saw India's strategic importance and preserved continuity in policies towards India. In his tenure during early years, Mattis prioritized India in the Strategic plans of the United States. In September 2017, during his visit to India, he stressed the significance of bilateral security partnerships including technology sharing, and maritime security, and stressed ending terrorist safe havens. This visit marked policy continuity under Trump, with Mattis declaring India as a "pillar of regional stability and security" (Ganguly, 2021). Tillerson also recognized India's worth. He praised the relationship between India and the United States and criticized China as a global threat. He urged Pakistan to battle terrorism more efficiently. On the Indian side, Prime Minister Modi and Foreign Secretary Subrahmanyam Jaishankar expertly navigated Trump's unpredictable nature. Narendra Modi worked hard to develop a good relationship with Donald Trump and this hard work led to a successful visit to the United States in June 2017. They found common ground in maritime security, counterterrorism, and defense, though issues remained regarding Donald Trump's "America First" (Brands, 2024), policy, and trade deficit worries.

    The relationship between America and India was impacted by Trump's personality, particularly because of his remarks on delicate subjects. Donald Trump tried to arbitrate the conflict between India and Pakistan over Kashmir after meeting with Pakistani President Imran Khan in July 2019, an offer that India vehemently rejected. In September 2019, Trump extended his offer once more, but India once more rejected it. Despite Trump's volatility, important members of his administration refrained from making drastic changes because they understood how important it was to keep stable and consistent policies. Following Rex Tillerson's resignation as Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo sought to preserve the Indo-US alliance. In September 2018, Pompeo and Defense Secretary James Mattis visited India for two plus two talks in which high-level foreign and security officials from both countries were involved. They met with Indian officials, Nirmala Sitharaman and Sushma Swaraj, to boost defense cooperation and support an open Indo-Pacific. Although there were differences between India's oil trade with Iran and plans to buy Russia's missile systems, these did not affect the positive manner of the talks.

    The second "two plus two dialogue" held in December 2019 in Washington, DC, (Jaishankar, 2019), was also productive and fruitful. The Indian delegation included new leaders at that time: Subrahmanyam Jaishankar as Minister for External Affairs and Rajnath Singh as Minister of Defense. They signed the Industrial Security Annex (ISA), permitting Indian private companies to co-develop delicate technologies with American companies. They also had discussions regarding Pakistan's involvement in terrorism, highlighting ongoing policy continuity regardless of personnel changes in India. However, there were certain issues that were prominent during the Obama administration these included climate change cooperation and clean energy (Mamini, 2023). These issues were not addressed during Obama’s government. This was expected since Trump showed little interest in global climate change. Issues regarding Trade and investment were also not addressed in these talks, as they were handled by the United States Trade Representative.

    After Obama left office in 2017, the association between India and America had become much stronger. This happened despite Obama's speech in India condemning growing religious intolerance. The Trump administration, despite differing from Obama's policies, continued to engage with India. Key officials like James Mattis and Rex Tillerson sustained this momentum, and Modi and Trump developed a personal bond. Their similar views and disbelief in Islam helped them find common ground. However, Trump's transactional approach to foreign policy and unpredictable decision-making caused some issues. Despite this, key officials understood India's importance and sustained a working relationship. Personalities played a role in sustaining the relationship, but the union of structural interests was crucial. Both the United States and India shared concerns about China and this helped them continue their strategic partnership despite ongoing disagreements. Between 2008 and 2020, India ordered seven major US military platforms, making the US India's fourth-largest arms supplier after Russia, Israel, and France. India-US defense trade has grown from $200 million in 2000 to over $20 billion, bolstered by India's designation as a 'Major Defence Partner' by the United States in 2016 and the signing of three defense cooperation agreements from 2016 to 2019 (Parpiani, 2023). This growing relationship may lead to India acquiring more US military equipment, including six P-8I Neptune anti-submarine warfare aircraft.

    Relations between India and the United States have developed especially in defense and security, because they both shared concerns about China's rising impact in South Asia. This strategic partnership has extended under the leadership of Narendra Modi and Donald Trump. Historically, relations between India and the United States were tense during the Cold War, but they began to improve significantly about 15 years ago. In July 2005 United States agreed to cooperate with India on civil nuclear energy and this cooperation was a vital turning point. This led to India receiving a waiver in 2008 to start civil nuclear trade and the signing of the landmark civil nuclear cooperation agreement in October 2008, which is also known as the 123 Agreement. This agreement marked a major change in India-US relations (Hamidi, 2022).

    During a significant visit, India signed a Letter of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) with the United States to purchase 24 MH-60R Seahawk anti-submarine warfare helicopters for around $2.6 billion. The deal comprised technology transfer from Lockheed Martin to Indian contractors (Vivek, 2018). The need for these helicopters dates back to the mid-2000s when the Indian Navy started the multi-role helicopter program. Initially, India chose Sikorsky's S-70B Seahawk in 2014, but the deal fell through due to price disagreements (Levesque, 2020). Furthermore, India signed another LOA with the United States for six more AH-64E Apache Guardian attack helicopters, costing about $930 million. During the Indo-Pakistani War in 1965, Pakistan used several American weapons including tanks and jets and this led to a major conflict between India and Pakistan. Though Pakistan was the aggressor, the United States did not strongly condemn it and treated both countries equally while voicing concern over the misuse of its weapons.

    The 1971 war resulted in the creation of Bangladesh; in this war the United States again supported Pakistan. The United States tried to secure a cease-fire through the UN Security Council, but when the Soviet Union rejected it, the United States sent its Seventh Fleet, including a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, to the Bay of Bengal pretending it was to evacuate American citizens. This move was seen as a threat to India, and the Soviet Union reacted by Supporting India, (Kumar, 2009). The relationship between India and America was stressed especially after the test of the first atomic device of India in 1974. In 1975, the United States decided to lift the block on arms sales to South Asia, this decision further worsened relations, which led India to cancel a planned visit by its External Affairs Minister. The U.S. condemnation of India's declaration of emergency in 1975 also caused friction. However, after the Janta Government came to power in India in 1977 and Jimmy Carter became the President of the United States relations between both countries were improved. Jimmy Carter visited India in 1978, and Indian Prime Minister Morarji Desai made a return visit to the United States but the progress was short-lived as Indira Gandhi returned to power in India. She did not support America against the USSR in Afghanistan; she favored the withdrawal of Soviet troops at an appropriate time. The election of Ronald Reagan, who took a tough stance against the Soviet Union, further troubled Indo-U.S. relations, because India supported the Soviet Union.

    Obama and Modi both made significant growth during their terms in their relationship due to national and structural needs. The Indian community in the United States, largely supportive of Modi, wanted to boost US-India relations and did not care much about his human rights record. Also, the business community of the United States saw India as a valuable market for American products and investments which also helped strengthen the relationship. Initially, Obama didn't focus much on India due to the financial crisis and wars in other countries. He tried to build a relationship with China, but this failed because China became aggressive in Asia due to China's growing assertiveness in Asia, especially in the South China Sea. This led the United States to look towards India instead.

    Statement of Problem

    Indo-American relations underwent significant shifts during the tenure of President Donald Trump, marked by a mix of cooperation, strategic shifts, and areas of controversy. Due to the longstanding enmity and tensions between Pakistan and India, the developments and cooperation between India and America raised questions about the impacts of this relationship on Pakistan's National Security and regional stability. The interplay between these two major players in international politics holds critical implications for regional stability, security, and cooperation, with potential implications for Pakistan's defense, economic, and political factors. This study will explore the dynamics of Indo-American relations in the Trump era and clarify their complex implications for Pakistan. 

    Research Questions

    1. What were the main areas of cooperation and conflict between India and America during Donald Trump's era and what role did economic factors play in shaping relations between India and America?

    2. What were the defense and political implications of Indo-American relations during the Donald Trump era for Pakistan?

    Research Objectives

    The Goals of this study are

    1. To understand how the relationship between India and America shifted during the Trump era.

    2. To identify the areas where India and America worked together and where they faced disagreements during that time.

    3. To measure how Pakistan reacted to the changing Indo-American relations and how it influenced Pakistan's political, economic, and defense decisions.

    4. To analyze how the changes in Indo-American relations affected stability and dynamics in the South Asian region.

    Literature Review

    This Literature Review aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the existing state of research on Indo-US Relations during the Trump Era: Implications for Pakistan, highlighting key findings, trends, and gaps in the literature. Here is given Literature Review of some Articles and Books along with literature gaps.

      In the article Containing China: The Indo-US Defense Cooperation, Kakar (2022) stated that China is growing fast and its increasing influence in the world is posing a direct challenge to the United States. The United States is trying to build its relations and work with other countries, especially with India, The U.S. wants India to help her regarding the security factor to keep a check on China. India also needs the help of the United States to build and maintain its influence in the region and to become militarily strong. This study also talks about the impacts of this relationship on other countries especially Pakistan which is already worried about the intentions of India (Kakar, 2022). This article provides information about the growing cooperation between India and the U.S. due to a big power China, but it does not give details about the concerns of neighboring countries like Pakistan about this relationship.

    In the article US- India Relations: The Shift From Trump to Biden, Ashbridge (2021) wrote that unexpectedly, relations between the US and India grew during President Donald Trump's tenure because there was a mutual concern about China, and the other reason was the personal link among Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Donald Trump. Biden aimed potential warming towards Pakistan, driven by aims to secure businesses in Afghanistan, and this could ruin U.S.-India relations. Such a shift might raise fears in India and doubt the reliability of Washington as a security partner. Due to Biden's emphasis on democratic values an important con, a gap arises, and this gap could clash with certain Prime Minister Modi's government's actions, While the Trump administration ignored these concerns. Missing information in the above article is how India and the United States work together on factors like climate change, defense, security, and other issues (Ashbridge, 2021). There is also a factor of trade between both the countries (India, US) and India is protecting its own economy but, it’s not clear if they will be able to agree on certain things.

    In an article titled Security of Pakistan under the Shadow of Indo-US Strategic Partnership, Amin (2021) claimed that the President of the United States Donald Trump during his era showed support for India's Prime Minister Modi. He called Modi a 'True comrade of the United States'. The United States considered India a big supporter of continuing to delay China's rise in the region. This Thought of Trump made Pakistan concerned about the unconditional support of the US for India and this support also threatened the Security structure of South Asia. The writer argued that if India becomes a global power with a permanent seat and veto power in the United Nations Security Council then there is a possibility that Pakistan's interest could be compromised completely and internationally. He also said if Pakistan wants to survive globally, Pakistan needs to take diplomatic steps (Amin, 2021). This article lacks the historical context of relations between the United States and India and how United States foreign policy changed towards India.

    In the article A Critical View of Indo-US Relations under Obama Administration, the authors Imran Wakil, Ghulam Mustafa, and Nida Shabbir (2022) stated that the Indian administration welcomed Obama's policies as Obama gave Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh a surety of good relations. They stated that the Indo-US nuclear deal was seen as a positive gesture for developing strong relations between both countries. The article gave an overview of the factors responsible for their closer relations based on recent administrations (Wakil, 2022). A more detailed analysis of how Obama's policies distinctively affect their bilateral relations, especially in areas beyond nuclear deals and economic collaboration could provide a better understanding of  Indo-US relations during that period.

    In the article named, Assessing Indo-US Relations in the Modi's Administration: Emergence of a New Strategic Partnership, Sahu (2020) argues that since Narendra Modi became the official leader he has been working to make India a prominent state and global leader. Modi used a political influence strategy to make relations or to connect with other countries, he mainly focused on the relationship between India with America. The partnership of India with the US has evolved under different US administrations Obama and Trump with Narendra Modi's' diplomatic strategies playing a vital role. They both have worked on the projects and events like "Namaste Trump" and "Howdy Mody". There was a significant nuclear deal between India and the United States, freezing their ties (Sahu, 2020). This article stated how Modi has improved relations with other countries mainly with the US, but the article does not mention the challenges that might have arisen during this period. The other important thing that is missing from the article is how people feel about the evolving relationship between India and the US.

    Indo-American Relations during the Donald Trump Era

    The relationship between the United States and India got much stronger during the Narendra Modi and Donald Trump era. This occurred because both the leaders, Modi and Trump, were friendly with each other so they got along well both countries were concerned about China because China was becoming more and more powerful and it was also getting violent in Indo-Pacific. India and the United States worked together but there were still some areas where they had different opinions and they didn't agree. The areas where they had different opinions were trade, climate change, and democracy as well they also had different opinions regarding dealing with different countries including China, Pakistan, Iran, and Russia. They initially had some differences in their ideas about regional security and Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. Quad includes America, Japan, Australia, and India (Verma, 2023).

    The United States and India during their meetings in 2019 and 2020, talked about the fact that they shared values like human rights and freedom and they also discussed the way how they shared these values. They decided to work together to make sure that the Indo-Pacific region stays nonviolent and wealthy. They also signed agreements to work together on protection and security including sharing military information. Both countries were worried about China's presence and its action in the region. India was mainly tense about China's assistance to Pakistan and its impact on the region. The United States was worried about China's moves regarding the military in the South China Sea. 

    While relations between the United States and India got better during the Modi and Trump era they still had some differences mainly about dealing with China and other countries as well. Vyoma Jha in her fourth essay stated that During the Donald Trump era, the United States and India had common interests regarding the trade of energy, especially fossil fuels like coal, oil, and gas. While there was a constant association on energy security and dealing with climate change during the tenures of Barack Obama and George W. Bush there was a shift during Trump's presidency. This shift occurred because Donald Trump didn't consider it important to address climate change. Trump believed that climate change was not the real issue. Donald Trump's policies were influenced by domestic policies. Seeing the Modi government's divisive internal policies as a diplomatic coup and evidence of the leaders' strong bonds, the U.S. has held back from criticizing them. The geopolitical significance of India in U.S. political strategy and the advantages that both countries enjoy at home motivates this position. Refusing to criticize India's democratic problems, the U.S. seeks to support India as a regional power. However, U.S. and Indian objectives have diverged in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Even while everyone acknowledges Pakistan's detrimental influence in the area, the security concerns of India have grown as a result of America's hasty exit from Afghanistan and its cooperation with the Taliban. This circumstance emphasizes America's declining interest in an area that is essential to India's geopolitical objectives. President Biden's government has mostly carried out his predecessor Donald Trump's foreign policy strategies since he assumed office in January 2021 (Bhatnagar, 2023). The US military's completion of its withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021, in accordance with the Doha deal negotiated under Trump, was a key continuation of this program. The withdrawal that followed this agreement had a significant impact on regional dynamics. The strategic partnership between Pakistan and America has suffered greatly since the US military left. Pakistan was an important US ally in Afghanistan, but since the withdrawal, Pakistan's influence has decreased. This change has also reduced Pakistan's contribution to US efforts in Afghanistan, giving India a chance to draw attention to problems with terrorism that originate in Pakistan.

    India and United States Defense Cooperation

    The Trump administration had the chance to increase its support for India's defense plans. India was hesitant and uncertain to build defense cooperation with the United States in the past due to a lack of trust between both countries.  However, in 2005, they began firming their defense cooperation. Both countries signed the Defense Trade and Technology Initiative in 2012 so that India feels easy to buy defense equipment from the United States and share technology. India wanted to make itself advance in these areas. They recognized important projects to work on together in 2015 (Bouton, 2017), such as developing aircraft carrier technology crucial for India’s influence in the Indian Ocean and outside. 

    In August 2016, they confirmed the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement, and this agreement could change their relationship regarding defense from just purchasing and limited military assistance to a broader partnership. This may include better coordination between the forces of India and the United States and maybe even combined naval patrols. India was thoughtful about such agreements before, anxious they might seem too much like an alliance, but Narendra Modi decided to go ahead. These efforts by both countries had shown results and the two countries did a lot more military exercises together. In the year 2015, the United States had more cooperation and exercises with India than any other country. India had become a major buyer of US defense equipment, even though they don't get special funding for it like some other countries. Russia was the only country that sold more defense gear to India. United States defense sales to India have gone up higher and India was the biggest foreign buyer of US weapons in 2013. With India now one of the top shoppers of weapons internationally, there's a big chance for more US sales to India, which means more jobs for Americans. In the Indo-US defense relationship next step was crucial as Prime Minister Narendra Modi has invested a lot of hard work and effort into getting it to this point and so he wanted the Trump administration to keep it going. But the United States should remember that India won't rely only on the US for defense. They are still working with other countries especially Russia which has been their main supplier for a long time. 

    Trade and Economic Relations

    The leaders of India and America had a welcoming and friendly phone call in January. Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi started a deep conversation on Twitter; the White House mentioned that the United States sees India as a good friend (Kumar, 2017). There was a belief that the newly elected President of the United States was confident about strengthening links with India as India was the eleventh largest trading partner of the world for America during Trump's era. Leaders of both countries gave priority to their countries' interests and both shared similar approaches to economic troubles. Before approaching the leaders of major European Countries President Donald Trump reached out to Narendra Modi and this act showed the intensity of the relationship between both leaders. Both leaders focused on enhancing their countries' economies and creating jobs. The economies of the US and India were boosted, giving an opportunity for closer collaboration. Supporters of Trump's economic policies should know the potential welfare of stronger ties with India. Given the geopolitical landscape, India holds significant importance as a strategic partner for America. Despite past efforts to improve relations, the US-India partnership hasn't reached its full potential. With the leadership of Prime Minister Modi, there's an opportunity to build up ties further. The Trump administration's willingness to challenge traditional approaches suggested that was a good time to reconsider and extend U.S.-India relations. This could provide both countries with benefits regarding the economy as well as in terms of job creation. Using tariffs as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations with India while ignoring shared geopolitical objectives has coincided with India's growing protectionism under the Made in India policy of Narendra Modi. The two countries' protracted bilateral trade conflict has been facilitated by this alignment. India's exports of steel and aluminum to the US market have been greatly impacted by safeguard levies levied by the US on these commodities. Still, these exports account for a very minor portion of India's overall exports to the US. The decision by Trump to revoke India's status as a developing country eligible for benefits under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) had a more significant effect. The Indian economy is expected to be more significantly impacted by the removal of the GSP designation because the program's exports are mostly focused on traditional labor-intensive industries including engineering items, leather goods, and textiles. Despite this, the fact that the next election is set for 2024 and that Modi's government won a sizable majority of the vote in the May 2019 elections indicates that the elimination of the GSP may not have a substantial impact on India's trade negotiation strategy. Rather, the new protectionist measures resulting from the Make in India approach are probably going to have greater sway (Chandra, 2020). Furthermore, the pending World Trade Organisation (WTO) lawsuit in which the United States has filed a complaint against India's manufacturing export subsidies may be very important. In the event that the WTO Appellate Body sustains the ruling against India, it would strengthen the American negotiating position in the trade agreement. This decision may force India to reevaluate its subsidizing policies and create new negotiation opportunities, which would change the nature of the two nations' trade relationship. Because of their divergent perspectives on the multilateral trading system, India and the US have not made considerable progress in their relationship, despite seeing the potential benefits of expanding bilateral commerce. Mutual mistrust increased with the breakdown of WTO discussions in June 2008 over a safeguard mechanism for poor nations, which caused the split to become more apparent. As a result of this incident, the US withdrew from bilateral trade negotiations with India and decreased its participation in the WTO. Until India changes important rules, such as those pertaining to foreign investment and the handling of investment disputes, the US has been reluctant to participate in such discussions. Even in the absence of official trade negotiations, the United States 'investments and commerce with India have increased dramatically.

    Implications of Indo-American Relations during the Trump Era for Pakistan

    Indo-American Relations during the Donald Trump era had serious implications for Pakistan. These implications include:

    Defense Implications

    According to the White House, American President Donald Trump pressed the Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi to strengthen ties with Pakistan and honor his pledge to improve conditions for the Kashmiri people. This happened during their informal meeting outside the UN General Assembly. Prime Minister Modi and President Trump had their fourth encounter on Tuesday since the latter started his second term in May. During their forty-minute conversation, they mostly spoke about trade between their two nations and the issue of Pakistani-sponsored terrorism. After India canceled Article 370, which granted Jammu and Kashmir special standing, tensions between that country and Pakistan grew. Pakistan severed diplomatic relations, expelled the Indian ambassador, and vehemently disagreed with India's decision. While Pakistan has been working to draw attention to the Kashmir dispute on a global scale, India maintains that repealing Article 370 is an "internal matter." According to Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale, President Trump was briefed by Prime Minister Modi on the difficulties that India suffers as a result of terrorism, particularly in Jammu and Kashmir. Gokhale told reporters that Modi brought up the fact that 42,000 people had died (Times, 2019),  in Kashmir as a result of terrorism over the last 30 years and that the country needed international assistance to fight terrorism. Gokhale stated, We expect Pakistan to have responded to Prime Minister Modi's efforts over the years, but they haven't. He said that in December 2015, Prime Minister Modi made a special visit to Lahore under minimal security and invited Pakistani leaders to his oath-taking ceremony. Gokhale went on to say that Prime Minister Modi informed President Trump that there had been an attack on the Pathankot Airbase in 2015, immediately following his visit to Lahore and that Pakistan had not yet taken any steps to bring those guilty to justice. The prime minister has stated unequivocally that we are willing to hold negotiations with Pakistan, but first, we must see some significant progress from that country. According to Gokhale, we have not yet witnessed any struggles from Pakistan to take those actions. The foreign secretary stated, "Prime Minister Modi conveyed India's perspective on terrorism, and President Trump demonstrated empathy. He went on to say that the US president acknowledged that both nations deal with the threat of terrorism.

    Prime Minister Modi stated that relatively few of the considerable number of foreign fighters in terrorist organizations such as ISIS and Al-Qaeda are from India. Additionally, he made the point that while Muslims in India make up the second-largest population in the world, their radicalization rate is lower. At the 'Howdy, Modi' gathering on Sunday in Houston, President Trump pledged to protect innocent civilians from 'radical Islamic terrorism,' while Prime Minister Modi spoke about India's position on terrorism.

    On his first trip to India since taking office, President Donald Trump was greeted by jubilant audiences, fans donning baseball caps bearing his name, and a life-sized cutout of him giving the thumbs up. The first day of the tour began with a big, planned ceremony in Ahmedabad, around 580 miles from New Delhi, where Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke to an enthusiastic stadium full of spectators. In order to highlight the expanding defense cooperation between the two nations, Trump disclosed during his speech a $3 billion (Carol, 2020), agreement for the sale of military hardware manufactured in the United States to India. He stated his opinion that India's principal defense ally ought to be the United States. In response, Modi commended Trump, referring to him as a friend and emphasizing his lofty ideas. Trump's comments regarding the very good US-Pakistani relationship and the significance of religious harmony in India, however, might not have gone down as well with his host. Trump spoke about the improvement in US-Pakistan relations, particularly with regard to the difficult topic of fighting terrorism on the Pakistani border, which affects India. Given the long-standing tensions between the two countries, especially with regard to the Kashmir area, the Indian government is probably not happy with President Trump's remarks during his visit to India in which he expressed support for Pakistan. Trump's comments about the value of harmony between various religious communities Hindus, Muslims, Buddhists, Christians, and Jews, among others are especially poignant since they coincide with criticism of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's treatment of religious minorities. Trump has maintained a cordial rapport with Modi, who stands to benefit politically from the high-profile visit of a U.S. president, despite these concerns in several areas and about future prospects to maintain it. President Trump emphasized the significance of greatly expanding trade between the US and India. In order to "resolve barriers to free, fair, and reciprocal trade, Obama emphasized the importance of giving US businesses better market access in India. A meeting was held between both the leaders two days after they were spotted together at the Houston Howdy, Modi event, where they demonstrated their strong friendship and shared vision for combating terrorism. Both the leaders urged Pakistan to make sure its land is not utilized for terrorist attacks in other states, according to an announcement from the white house. Narendra Modi and Trump also urged all countries to settle their land and sea disputes peacefully and by following international laws. Trump spoke to a small group of people at the White House succeeding a meeting with senior team members. Speaking to a small group of people at the White House during a meeting with senior followers of their teams, Donald Trump claimed that both the United States and India had suffered from terrorism and the harmful ideologies that encourage it. While Donald Trump's relationships with other conventional allies have not always been smooth sailing, during their first encounter, he and Narendra Modi seemed to get along well, even sharing hugs in front of the press in the White House Rose Garden. Although there were no key declarations, Trump's administration confirmed the approval of a $366 million sale of a transportation aircraft to India, comprising a deal for about 20 drones. America has become India's top trader of defense gear, with agreements costing over $15 billion since 2008 (Dawn, 2017). Modi and Donald Trump assured that their efforts for economic evolution and growth would fortify, not weaken the relationship between the world's two largest democracies. Donald Trump said to a smiling Modi during their statement that the relationship between India and America has never been stronger, has never been healthier. A new Pew Research Center survey indicates that many Indians approve of Trump. Trump expressed optimism about the possibility of a successful trade agreement, signaling that he and Modi can work together to produce good outcomes for both countries, even if the U.S. and India had not finalized a deal before his arrival.

    Despite slower-than-expected growth, India's economy continued to exceed Pakistan's every year and this gave confidence to New Delhi that it could economically overpower and suppress Pakistan. The Houston event showed the possibility of action and the path India will take if Pakistan does not pursue peace. According to Indian officials, Pakistan's mere claims of being a supporter and advocate of peace are unsatisfactory. Action must follow intent, and Pakistan is lacking in this regard, this lack of intent allowed Modi to almost label Pakistan as a terrorist state without any fear of contradiction and inconsistency in front of Donald Trump. Pakistan seems unable to shake off the disgrace of holding figures like Osama Bin Laden, and Khalid Sheikh Muhammad, and raising terrorist groups such as Lashkr-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), (Shaul, 2023).

    Economic Implications

    The association between India and the United States has gotten much better over the past few years. They both share similar views and interests in this changing world. Important developments and changes occurred during George Bush and Manmohan Singh's era and later leaders continued their efforts to enhance economic, political, and strategic ties. Historically, the United States preferred Pakistan over India during the Cold War which caused distrust in India towards the United States. In the 1990s India conducted a nuclear test leading to US sanctions at first. However, India's economic growth led to renewed talks between the two countries. Both countries shared common Interests about China's rising power and due to this common interest, both countries became closer. The United States later considered India as an ally to counterbalance China's influence. This was praised by the leaders, Obama and Trump. Under Trump Indo-US relationships became stronger and they enhanced their strategic business, especially in the Indo-Pacific area. Both the US and India agreed on Pakistan's involvement in terrorism during Donald Trump's presidency. The friendly relationship between United States President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Modi gave rise to this thought. High-level officials of the United States including Defense Secretaries James Mattis and Mike Pompeo recognized India's strategic importance. Indian officials, like former External Affairs Ministers Sushma Swaraj and Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, stressed India's strategic interests and Pakistan's role in terrorism.

    The United States and India agreed to support rebuilding Afghanistan but, this was a complicated issue. It was influenced by the things that were happening inside both countries, public opinion, and the fact that the United States was planning to leave Afghanistan. There were differences between the future of Afghanistan and Pakistan's role in the exit strategy of the United States.  During Donald Trump's term there constant changes occurred in the United States' policy toward Pakistan. In the first two years relationship between both countries was tense but, in the later years of his term, this relationship improved because the United States required Pakistan's help in the Afghan peace process. The Donald Trump administration re-examined its ties with Pakistan between 2016 and 2018 because of worries about that country's support of terrorist groups. India was worried about the same things. Indian officials seized upon the cordial connection between President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi to draw attention to the problem of Pakistani-affiliated terrorism and to emphasize the need for the US to take more decisive action against Pakistan. For instance, US Defence Secretary James Mattis spoke in an oblique manner about Pakistan in September 2017 while on a visit to India, saying that "there can be no tolerance of terrorist safe havens." Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was more dull after a month. He said that Pakistan was expected by the US to act decisively against terrorist organisations operating inside its borders that posed a threat to the country's citizens as well as those of the surrounding area. In 2017, Trump acknowledged India's worries and chastised Pakistan for supporting terrorism even though he referred to Pakistan as a valued partner. He asserted that the United States could no longer ignore Pakistan's role as a safe haven for terrorist groups, such as the Taliban, and other organizations that directly threaten regional stability. He issued a warning, saying that while Pakistan stood to gain much from working with Afghanistan; it would also lose much by continuing to harbor terrorists and criminals.

    Pakistani citizens are disheartened as their hopes for a bright and stable future remain unfulfilled leading to frustration and a sense of betrayal. To rebuild the trust it is essential to make sure that there should be transparent and fair elections. Pakistan should address its shortcomings and flaws to strengthen its democracy. By doing so, Pakistan can take a step forward towards stability and gain prominence at the global level.

    Political Implications

    The relationship between the leaders of America and India, Narendra Modi and Donald Trump had political implications for Pakistan. Their relationship had a serious impact on regional dynamics, diplomacy, and security plans. The strong relationship between Trump and Modi improved Indo-American relations as well leading to healthier defense assistance, trade ties, and strategic partnerships. This improved relationship had implications for Pakistan regarding military balance and strategic positioning in South Asia. America has favored the posture of India regarding terrorism, mainly regarding cross-border terrorism which was allegedly originating from Pakistan. The closer relationship between India and the United States has caused the diplomatic isolation of Pakistan. Under Donald Trump's presidency, America reduced military and economic assistance to Pakistan and claimed that Pakistan was not taking action against terrorism. This move was seen as a consequence of the growing United States and India's strategic partnership. Increased military collaboration between India and America, including arms deals and joint military exercises, has made Pakistan more worried about its security. In response, Pakistan developed its ties with China and other allies. The Indo-U.S. nuclear agreement and support for the entry of India into the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) have strategic implications; this could change the nuclear balance in the region leading Pakistan to enhance its own nuclear capabilities. The enhanced ties between the United States and India can reduce Pakistan's trade opportunities and economic partnerships making it harder for Pakistan to get the same benefits. Another layer of complexity is added by the United States' ambiguous position on China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), especially the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The US was concerned about the debt implications of BRI projects but also recognized the potential for CPEC to bring about regional stability. The cooperation between the United States and India may give India more confidence in its regional policies, increasing rigidities and affecting Pakistan's foreign and security policies. Finally, Pakistan may strengthen its alliance with China as a result of the Indo-American dynamic, which would tip the regional power stability.

    Conclusion

    During Donald Trump's presidency, the relationship between India and America improved significantly. They improved their ties in different areas including defense, economic, and strategic areas. Both countries team up through defense agreements and a shared goal of preserving a free Indo-Pacific region. This rising partnership made Pakistan less serious to America and both India and America worked together to counter the increasing influence of China. America, India, Australia, and Japan confirmed this alignment through the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad). The United States and India signed defense agreements like BECA and COMCASA. These agreements enhanced their military cooperation. These developments had implications for Pakistan, reducing US belief in counterterrorism efforts in Afghanistan. This resulted in a decay in military assistance. Donald Trump's administration stressed Pakistan to take serious action against terrorist groups and organizations within its borders and threatened Pakistan to cut off aid. The Trump era indicated progress in Indo-American relations posing challenges and implications for Pakistan. The George W. Bush–Manmohan Singh era saw significant advancements in India-US relations, and successive administrations have continued to advance political, economic, and strategic collaboration. India had to get past the initial mistrust stemming from the US's Cold War-era historical bias toward Pakistan over India. Talks between the two nations accelerated after India conducted nuclear tests in the 1990s and the US imposed sanctions as a result, driven by both nations' concerns over China's ascent and India's economic expansion. The two countries' relationship strengthened under President Trump, with a particular emphasis on India's place in the Indo-Pacific. This was a Defence and strategic partnership. Trump's erratic policies presented difficulties for Indian authorities, especially with regard to trade and immigration. During Trump's presidency, the Afghanistan-Pakistan region became a crucial arena where India and the US alignment was both put to the test and strengthened. The election of Donald Trump as president signaled a change in US policy towards Pakistan, which has been typified by unpredictable ties. The United States and India shared increased concerns over Pakistan's support for terrorist groups, which led to tensions in the bilateral relationship between 2016 and 2018. The enhanced Indo-American relationship increased pressure on Pakistan, especially regarding its role in regional security, and pushed Pakistan to pursue new partnerships and adapt to the varying geopolitical landscape.

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Cite this article

    CHICAGO : Shahbaz, Maryam, Ghulam Mustafa, and Bilal Bin Liaqat. 2024. "Indo-American Relations during Donald Trump Era: Implications for Pakistan." Global Political Review, IX (III): 9-20 doi: 10.31703/gpr.2024(IX-III).02
    HARVARD : SHAHBAZ, M., MUSTAFA, G. & LIAQAT, B. B. 2024. Indo-American Relations during Donald Trump Era: Implications for Pakistan. Global Political Review, IX, 9-20.
    MHRA : Shahbaz, Maryam, Ghulam Mustafa, and Bilal Bin Liaqat. 2024. "Indo-American Relations during Donald Trump Era: Implications for Pakistan." Global Political Review, IX: 9-20
    MLA : Shahbaz, Maryam, Ghulam Mustafa, and Bilal Bin Liaqat. "Indo-American Relations during Donald Trump Era: Implications for Pakistan." Global Political Review, IX.III (2024): 9-20 Print.
    OXFORD : Shahbaz, Maryam, Mustafa, Ghulam, and Liaqat, Bilal Bin (2024), "Indo-American Relations during Donald Trump Era: Implications for Pakistan", Global Political Review, IX (III), 9-20
    TURABIAN : Shahbaz, Maryam, Ghulam Mustafa, and Bilal Bin Liaqat. "Indo-American Relations during Donald Trump Era: Implications for Pakistan." Global Political Review IX, no. III (2024): 9-20. https://doi.org/10.31703/gpr.2024(IX-III).02